Is $ETH ready for a crazy surge? To conclude: Currently, there is potential for a meme-like surge driven by funds, but it relies on continuous incremental funding and narrative reshaping. The conditions for an increase are in a rapid accumulation phase: - ETF funding channels are opening up - Regulatory pricing is gradually being established - High staking/re-staking leads to a tightening of circulating chips. Potential downward pressure is also on the rise: - Burning rate is decreasing - Net supply is re-inflating - L2 diversion leads to L1 fees and narrative dilution. Here’s a detailed interpretation: First, $ETH currently has a certain incremental demand: - Daily inflows of $700 million into U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs, with cumulative inflows in the tens of billions, show a trend of institutions and retail investors concentrating their positions through compliant channels. - Several listed companies are migrating or adding $ETH positions from Bitcoin reserves, with most CT bloggers comparing $ETH to the early $BTC corporate allocation craze. - The U.S. Congress is advancing several pieces of crypto legislation, boosting the risk premium across the entire digital asset category, facilitating institutional allocation. Secondly, there is a supply-side tightening and a decrease in circulation: - The staking ratio across the network has reached a historical high (around 28%-29%+), with circulating sellable chips continuously declining. - The re-staking ecosystem (EigenLayer @eigenlayer, etc.) is increasing TVL, absorbing additional circulating chips and adding derivative yields, enhancing holding willingness. - The corporate treasury model (BitMine, SharpLink, and others shifting to $ETH surplus allocation) further locks in liquidity. The only current flaw is that the ETH L1 ecosystem narrative is failing, with 85% of ecological transactions having migrated to L2 (Base taking the majority; L2 fees are profitable). Moreover, the success of L2 means scaled adoption, taking most of the traffic away from the L1 fee pool, leading to a decrease in L1 burning rate, resulting in net supply re-inflation/annual dilution rebound, and the deflationary effect of EIP-1559 cannot be automatically maintained. This means that the upward drive for ETH is similar to BTC, supported purely by short-term capital injections. If the funding cannot be sustained, $ETH will definitely encounter resistance, with the biggest catalyst being the staking ETF. If the staking ETF is approved, ETH is highly likely to surge to $4,000-$5,000 in the short term.