Is $ETH ready for a wild rise? Let's start with the conclusion: There is currently a capital-driven skyrocketing potential similar to MEME, but it relies on continuous incremental funds and narrative reshaping The rising conditions are in the stage of rapid accumulation: ETF funding channels open Regulatory pricing is gradually implemented A high percentage of staking/re-staking has led to a tightening of tradable chips The potential downward pressure is also on the rise: The burn rate decreases Net supply re-inflation L2 offloading leads to L1 fees and narrative dilution Here's a detailed interpretation: The first is that $ETH now has some incremental demand -The daily inflow of U.S. spot ether ETFs was in the order of $700 million in a single day, accumulating billions of dollars in inflows, and there was a trend of institutions and retail investors building positions through compliance channels -Many listed companies have migrated or added $ETH positions from Bitcoin warehouses, and most CT bloggers have compared $ETH to the early $BTC corporate allocation boom -The U.S. Congress has advanced several crypto legislation to boost the risk premium of the entire digital asset class, making it easier for institutions to increase allocation The second is supply-side tightening and circulation decline -The staking ratio of the entire network reached a record high (approximately 28%-29%+), and the circulating and saleable chips continued to decline -The TVL of the re-pledge ecosystem (EigenLayer@eigenlayer, etc.) has increased, absorbing additional circulating chips and superimposing derivative income to enhance holding intentions - Corporate treasury models (BitMine, SharpLink, others shifting to $ETH surplus allocation) further lock in liquidity The only flaw at present is that the ETH L1 ecological narrative has failed, and 85% of ecological transactions have been migrated to L2 (Base accounts for the majority; L2 fee profit). In addition, the success of L2 means large-scale adoption, taking most of the traffic away from the L1 fee pool, followed by a decrease in the L1 burn rate, leading to a reflation of net supply/annualized dilution recovery, and the deflationary effect of EIP-1559 cannot be automatically maintained. This means that ETH's upward drive is similar to BTC, supported by purely short-term capital injections, and if funds cannot sustain $ETH, it will definitely encounter resistance, and the biggest catalyst lies in staking ETFs. If the pledge ETF is approved, ETH has a high probability of rushing to $4,000-$5,000 in the short term.